Rubber stocks

I have some charts of rubber stocks from Malaysia today. ,

First up, Supermax. After a long, slow but large climb over the years, Supermax recently retraced to the RM4.00 region. I have resistance pegged at RM4.90-RM5.00, and support at RM3.80. In the short-run, I do not see any buy or sell signals, although the MACD indicator is pointing to some more slight upward move.

In the next several months though, I am going to have to be a bear on this counter. Moving averages are getting below/below the 200-day MA. More importantly, price is below the heavy MA too. For me to drop a bearish view on Supermax, I want to see price getting above RM5.00 soon. The MACD is now in positive territory, which is a bias towards the bullish side. But, the GMMA is indicating to me bearishness. The faster moving averages have been rejected at the slower moving averages, and this is not a good sign from this indicator.

Next up, Top Glove, 7113.KL.

I have included a fibonacci retracement study on Top Glove’s chart, taking the bottom to be the start of a surge in late 2009, to the recent high of RM7.00s. I have support at RM5.30s and resistance at RM5.80. These two figures are taken from the fibonacci levels and past price movements. Once again, I cannot call myself a bull on this counter because of the moving averages getting below the 200-day MA. Only one indicator is pointing to short-term upward move -MACD. I do think price should head up in the week ahead and test the 200-day MA. If price gets above the 200-day MA, I may drop my longer term bearish view; but I will say Top Glove looks set for downside if price does not get above the 200-day MA soon.

Now, I will show you all a chart of IRCB (2127.KL), which has an unconfirmed symmetrical triangle. The triangle is quite small, but it qualifies as one for me. Volume behaviour is just right – descending. Thursday’s trading saw a spike in volume, but the candle was not a very bullish looking one. Anyway, I will watch this counter and see if a breakout occurs in the week ahead. In the longer term though, I am not convinced IRCB will have a change in trend. I have resistance pegged at RM5.45, which once broken, I will look for IRCB to hang onto for support. I do not like the ugly downtrend IRCB has been in for quite a while; however, once a pattern forms on the chart, I will have to take that pattern as it is, and if an upward breakout ensues, I will have to be a bull.

Next up, Kossan, 7153.KL.

I have identified a confirmed bear flag in Kossan. Volume is almost perfect, high in the flagpole and declining in the flag. Trouble is, I have also found a good support level coming in at RM2.95. Nevertheless, i will be looking for downside in Kossan in the next few weeks. Let’s see what price does from here on.

Lastly, Rubberex, 7803.KL.

I have a long downward parallel channel that Rubberex is trading in. Straightaway, I have no choice as a chartist but to be pessimistic. Moving averages are all heading downwards, and the GMMA is showing the lighter MAs as being unable to get above the heavier MAs. The only saving grace is that MACD is showing a bullish convergence between the MACD indicator and price. This is eveident in the fist few stocks above too. So, price may just head up soon, but with the downward channel in place, I see no reason to be a bull in the longer term.

That is about all for today’s rubber stocks! This post is ” made possible” because of a request from a fellow reader. So if any of you would like to know my take on certain counters, please do not hesitate to give me a comment or email. I must say first though that I can be a little picky at times with what counters I like to do a TA on, so I want to apologise if I do not do an analysis for you.

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

 

 

 

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2 Comments

  1. Posted November 7, 2010 at 11:52 PM | Permalink | Reply

    Thanks!
    Very well done. Love your charts and comments. Will reconsider my rubber stocks picking and factor in these TA trends.

    Well final request: AirAsia – I recently sold my holdings of 3 years in AirAsia at $2.34. While feeling a little blue about it. Prices are picking up again. And as a loyal customer of AirAsia I feel bad if “hoping” for it to come down! So hope to hear your TA analysis on this favourite Asian stock. Well by now, who hasn’t seen an AirAsia ad, and who doesn’t know someone who just flew AirAsia? Branding is very strong with strong network of routes. So only uncertainty might be price of oil. Anyway – eager to hear your TA.

    • Administrator
      Posted November 8, 2010 at 7:17 PM | Permalink | Reply

      Denzuke,

      You’re welcome!Looks like you made quite abit of money there. Hmm, I did see AirAsia’s chart, but I do not really like that kind of chart so I did not want to comment much on it. Basically, I feel that when I see a chart where price rises very high in a relatively short period of time – in this case it is a 100% rise from the middle of the year – I cannot come up with much in a TA of the counter. In other words, I feel my “skills and methods” cannot fit such charts.
      Anyway, I will put up a post as there are some interesting points in AirAsia’s chart. On the fundamental side, Yes I agree with you that AirAsia is probably one of the leading budget carriers in the region : )

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