Tag Archives: Osim

When a trend stalls

Evening all,

Pardon my inactivity for the whole year. I feel that my writing frequency has gone down like how my trading frequency has. In part, the local market threw me quite a number of surprises – but that is what money management and rational decision-making are for. US indices have recovered very strongly from the slight scare a few months ago, and other global indices have taken cue. Locally, the STI has drifted slightly higher, and continued strength will mean quite a good showing for the STI. My watchlist, however, shows a very mixed bag of performances by counters of different levels of market capitalization. Quite a while back, I got into Osim – O23.SI – when it was below $2.00; I posted a few articles during that time. As time passed, Osim kept climbing while financial reports posted positive numbers. Market sentiment was more or less like the chart – not much opposition and mainly praise. When “all sides” seem to agree with one another, it culminates in an easy trade to hold on to. I never had a reason to sell – so I did not.

os

In the chart below, I set the data range from the start of 2013 to the present day. The last two years of Osim’s stock performance are probably satisfactory to a trend-follower: steady up trend, small and mild correction, and a second leg of gains. Straightforward story, straightforward trade.

Only, Osim has started to tank: after hitting an all-time high of $2.94 in March, 2014, Osim has been trading sideways, and the latest trading session brought the 200-day MA into focus.

os2

Strong resistance above $2.84 is born out of the failure to hold that level on numerous times – as highlighted in red. Taking a slightly macro view of the chart, I see two regions that look like the peaks of a simple double top formation. An interesting thing to note is that the 200-day MA is near the neckline of the potential double top formation (which is bearish, generally-speaking) (see if you can spot another one in the middle of 2013), which only serves as confirmation of further downside if Osim does not start finding support. A bearsh indication on the chart is an ugly gap (circled in aqua). The gap came with tremendous volume, and the selling does not seem to have stopped. The picture this year looks worrisome. Some upward movement may be expected since Osim is near a good support zone. After tanking for quite a while, I will consider Osim as flat, so I expect a small rebound. A few more weeks will give a better picture if the market thinks Osim is now trading at a fair range or if Osim should be priced significantly lower. Are the good financial results taking a turn soon? Some more time will give me a better idea. As for now, it does seem like I have sat on Osim for long enough.

os3

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

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Hits and misses

Evening one and all,

I have been inactive here for the last few weeks because of a lack of time to put up posts, and I also wanted to give the market some time before I aired my opinions yet again. Since the start of the year, I have been singing the bearish tune for the local bourse. For a while, I was right and satisfied; then, the reversal came. Property stocks swung upwards quickly, the “Jardines” flew – helmed by Jardine C&C, and even the “Agris” rallied. In turn, the Straits Times Index rallied from the year’s low at the end of January – 2960s – to where it is now in the 3200s. In the chart below, I draw 3 brown boxes representing a classic 3-point inverted head and shoulders pattern – this should have been easy to spot.

sti

 

What this all means is that the local equity market has been surprising me. Making up for not keeping up with global indices? Whatever it may be, I am still not convinced with the rally. But that is for another day; when more candles fill up the chart, and with hindsight the picture gains much more clarity.

 

Hits and misses. In the charts below, I show you some counters that I have been proven wrong so far. I did not trade most of them – in case you wonder.

p1 p2 p3 p4 p5 p6

Rally after rally. Olam and Tamasek. Singland and UIC. For  a bear like me, I am starting to feel the heat. Nonetheless, I am still comfortable with what I see on the chart – and that is the most important thing. Now, for some charts to remind me why trend-following is the way.

Remember Osim?

osim

Two stocks that have been on my radar for a long while now: Old Chang Kee and Eu Yan Sang.

Osim, Old Chang Kee, and Eu Yan Sang. Once small companies that are proving to be growing fast and strong – at least, stock chart-wise.

eu 5ml

 

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

 

Osim consolidates in a triangle

Good evening all,

My apologies for the inactivity here. The last two weeks have been very busy ones for me. But trading was business as usual!

Anyways, today I have a chart of Osim. Osim finally took a breather from a long climb months back. The low $1.80s is immediate resistance, and the 50-day MA happens to be providing good support. If you look at the chart below, you will see a clear-cut, small ascending triangle. Volume behaviour makes this triangle even better looking – volume drops generally as the triangle is forming. All that is left to confirm this as a pattern is a breakout. I really like Osim’s picture (trading for upside). A pattern to define a consolidation after a strong trend simply means another trend is going to emerge. Let us see how this goes.

osim

As a “teaser” to what may happen, I have a chart of SIA Engg below. Look at the strong uptrend that emerged from the triangle.

siaengg

I am just joking about the connection between the two chart. Rightly, we should not expect the exact same result. That will not happen. And, my belief is that any pattern can break out to either side. It is better to wait for a breakout before entering. I am leaning on the bullish side in Osim’s case. But my approach to this set-up is such that I wait till I get confirmation before getting in.

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

Osim at giddy heights

Good day all,

I have a post on Osim, O23.SI, for today.

In my last posts on Osim, I identified an ascending triangle with an initial downward breakout. Osim rebounded at the $1.10 mark, and started heading up quickly. A once bearish scenario flipped altogether as Osim broke through resistance from the triangle at around $1.30. Also, price came back above the 200-day MA, and a strong march up meant the heavy MA started to turn upwards as well. Highlighted in yellow on the chart below is the area where Osim officially busted the ascending triangle which had a downward breakout. It was a tricky situation since Osim sustained heavy selling pressure at that relatively high region (yes, I was stopped out of a trade there). But, buyers took control and convincingly drove Osim into $1.40 territory. With the target hit weeks back, what can I then see on Osim’s chart now?

osim

First off, take note that Osim is at very high levels relative to 2 years ago, and all-time price action. Osim fell from grace in 2006-2007. And, the financial crisis in 2008 only made matters worse. If you do not track Osim’s share price, let me remind you that Osim’s share price has hit single-digit in cents before – 5 cents. Look at the chart again, Osim is now at the high side of the $1.00-$2.00 range. This is incredible performance for a stock of any kind. The rally stopped in late 2010 to the early months of 2011. Lo and behold, Osim is right back at those levels again.

The problem I have with following the trend, and “buying high, selling higher”, is that negative divergences are showing on Osim’s charts. I respect divergence/convergence signals between indicators and price a lot. In my experience of looking at charts, these signals are very accurate. Below, I show the MACD indicator that shows a clear-cut bearish divergence. Does this mean that Osim may suffer from profit-taking in the coming days? Objectively, since I respect such signals so much, I have to be wary of Osim’s uptrend. In the long-run, there could be further upside to chase all-time highs at the $2.00 area. But, for now, I will look for downside or consolidation.

osim1

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

Busted triangles watch

Evening all,

I have some charts of markets I analysed a while ago.

First up, I have the Osim. Right after my bearish call on Osim because of a downward breakout from an ascending triangle, Osim rallied on favourable financial reporting. Osim is now hanging onto $1.30. If I was short Osim, I will have to surrender at this point. If I want to be nimble, then I will watch for the chance of Osim blasting through strong overhead resistance. What this will then become is a busted ascenidng triangle. That remains to be seen, so let us monitor Osim, and see if traders respect the overhead resistance zone.

Next up, I have the ASX. When the ASX fell along with global markets in May, and all seemed doom and gloom, I aggressively looked for momentum. Unfortunately, I got stopped out of the ASX. Fast forward 3 months, I am reminded time and again, it was good that I got stopped out. The ASX is sitting 300+ points above my entry back then. Just like Osim’s chart, the ASX looks like it may want to bust the ascending triangle.

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

 

Triangles in Osim and Pac Andes

Hello all,

I have two triangles today – Osim and Pac Andes. Osim’s triangle does not have ideal volume behaviour but price action is good enough to qualify it an ascending triangle. We have a downward breakout with no volume either. So those who like volume as confirmation will not see this as an ascending triangle with a downward breakout. Price retraced up to $1.22 from a post-breakout low of $1.105. Any failure at the 200-day MA will entice me totrade Osim down to below $1.00.

Pac Andes’s triangle has good volume behaviour, but it looks a little immature. If you look at the triangle I drew below, price shot up with some room to spare before the apex of the triangle. On some occasions, price will fall back down before resuming upward trajectory.

Overall, these two triangles are not ideal, but it will be good to put them in observation.

 

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.