Tag Archives: S59.SI

Blue-chips in trouble

Evening all,

I have some words on the local market for today. After a fall starting in September, the STI has regained lost ground, and closed at 3350 on Friday. Two periods of rejection at this region in recent history mean that the STI is testing resistance now. When I look specifically at charts of the component stocks, I see more bearish-looking charts than bullish ones; and this was what I thought a few months back too – which makes me wonder how the STI managed to follow international indices higher. I want to share a few counters that have confirmed their mid-term sluggishness.

This is SIA Engineering – S59.SI. In my last post on this counter https://technicalanalysistalk.wordpress.com/2014/04/10/sia-engg-cruising-at-all-time-high/ – I mentioned my disappointment at SIA Engg failing at an all-time high, and prompted the chance of a downtrend emerging from a consolidation. SIA Engg traded in quite a volatile fashion from August to November before a decisive break down from the range (in black) in the middle of November. The sell-off put SIA Engg 10% below levels seen a few months back. Significantly, SIA Engg is now in a clear downtrend.

sia engg

Next, SembCorp Marine – S51.SI. In my last post on SembMar https://technicalanalysistalk.wordpress.com/2014/02/18/sembmarine-looking-bearish/ – I identified a huge descending triangle. True to theory, SembMar continued downwards. Based on the height of the pattern, SembMar is reaching its target. Incidentally, the downward target from the triangle is where a major low is: $3.10 region.

sem

Finally, ST Engg – S63.SI.

After coming out of a triangle in November of last year, ST Engg went range-bound for almost a year. In August of this year, ST Engg started sliding even lower. A sudden spike sent ST Engg to the 200-day MA but rejection kept the general downtrend intact. The recent sell-off is with heavy volume. The picture looks quite similar to SembMar’s. I see downtrends confirmed in these and other counters.

st

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

SIA Engg cruising at all-time high – for now

Evening all,

I have SIA Engg, S59.SI for today. Ever since besting all-time highs two years ago, SIA Engg entered into a distribution phase and traded in a fairly wide range between $4.60 and the $5.00 region. A clear support zone formed just above the previous major post-crash peak. In my last post on SIA Engg, https://technicalanalysistalk.wordpress.com/2013/05/02/singapore-market-moving-up-sia-engg-impresses/, I trusted the strong uptrend at that time. But as time unfolded, SIA Engg sold off quite severely – 10% off the peak. Fortunately, I was not in a position.

SIAE

Now, I shall zoom in on the rangebound market – since this is the current state of the market for S59.SI’s shares. I highlight a number of events inside this flat phase. First, you can see the failed attempt at holding the all-time high surge; then, there is a large symmetrical triangle – although not the best-looking, a clear enough zig-zag price action coupled with ideal volume behaviour confirms the pattern; finally, a bear flag portraying the breakout towards the downside of the symmetrical triangle. What seems like a boring flat market is putting SIA Engg on the radar.

One thing to note is that the flag pole of the bear flag is not exactly ideal: there is a gap in it. Also, the flag of the flag pole seems more like the market filling up the gap casually. As a longer-term player nowadays, I will still take the flat market as it is. But in a few months’ time, if SIA Engg is clearly broken down from this range, I just might look at it seriously for a bearish set-up.

siae2

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

Singapore market moving up, SIA Engg impresses

Hello traders/investors,

The STI ended today with a rise of 1%. despite an overall negative showing from other asian indices. This surprised me, and I decided to browse through some STI stocks to see which ones contributed to the increase. At first glance, I could not see any counter that performed spectacularly. Weird. I then decided to look at a page of all the component stocks. Lo and behold, DBS and Genting SP led the charge. You can call it a bank-led rally too, seeing how the 3 banks have been moving up in recent weeks.

I never bothered with the banks since they have been rather dull during the mini bull-runs in the last year or so. There have been so many other more attractive counters to trade. To see DBS shoot up 10% in the last 7 trading days is something unexpected. (I understand this is most probably because of the good earnings release).

There are reasons out there for the good showing by the local banks’ share prices but that is not for me to analyse.

As yet, I still do not have much to say about DBS, OCBC, and UOB. However, here is a blue-chip counter I am monitoring for set-ups.

SIA Engg is flirting with all-time highs at around $4.95 (make it $5.00). S59.SI first made a test of that high in January of this year before retracing down to the mid-to-fast moving averages. Then, buying interest in the last few weeks pushed SIA Engg up. Today’s close at $5.24 represents a new all-time high. It is obvious that SIA Engg is in a solid uptrend. The strong performance at this $5.00 region should be more reason to think SIA Engg will continue to go higher in the mid-term.

siae

While writing this post, I actually thought I had more than one counter to be bullish and happy for, but upon looking through the other charts, I realised I could not say so for several STI stocks, excluding banks and telcos. So, I am still not entirely certain of the STI opening wings and taking off from here. I expect a number of stocks to weigh down the STI.

Osim consolidates in a triangle

Good evening all,

My apologies for the inactivity here. The last two weeks have been very busy ones for me. But trading was business as usual!

Anyways, today I have a chart of Osim. Osim finally took a breather from a long climb months back. The low $1.80s is immediate resistance, and the 50-day MA happens to be providing good support. If you look at the chart below, you will see a clear-cut, small ascending triangle. Volume behaviour makes this triangle even better looking – volume drops generally as the triangle is forming. All that is left to confirm this as a pattern is a breakout. I really like Osim’s picture (trading for upside). A pattern to define a consolidation after a strong trend simply means another trend is going to emerge. Let us see how this goes.

osim

As a “teaser” to what may happen, I have a chart of SIA Engg below. Look at the strong uptrend that emerged from the triangle.

siaengg

I am just joking about the connection between the two chart. Rightly, we should not expect the exact same result. That will not happen. And, my belief is that any pattern can break out to either side. It is better to wait for a breakout before entering. I am leaning on the bullish side in Osim’s case. But my approach to this set-up is such that I wait till I get confirmation before getting in.

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

Downward parallel channel in SIA Engg

Evening one and all,

I have just seen a bearish picture on the chart of SIA Engg, S59.SI.

Straight off, I have a bearish pattern fixed on SIA Engg’s chart – a downward parallel channel. This channel started forming once SIA Engg tested all-time highs in October 2010. On the daily chart below, price has gone below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Further, the 50-day MA is turning down and has just broken below the important 200-day MA: this is a straightforward bearish signal from these two moving averages.

 

Next up, a few indicators that confirm the bearishness on price chart – MACD, ADX, and GMMA.

On the weekly chart, I have included a fibonacci retracements study. I used the all-time high in 2007 and the low in 2009 in the calculation of the important levels. Right now, SIA Engg is testing the 23.6% retracement level at about $3.85. Way back in 2007, this level happened to be good support for S59.SI. So, if SIA Engg manages to hold this level in the coming weeks, this could well be strong support for SIA Engg this year. I doubt that is the case, seeing SIA Engg is in a bearish pattern. I take what I see, and believe that patterns trump over everything else on a chart.

I have a purple rectangle drawn, which is bordering the price region of $3.25 to $3.60. I see this as much stronger support for SIA Engg, and it doubles up as a downward target too. The 200-week moving average is there, which makes this region even stronger as a technical support level. With no reason why SIA Engg should reverse from its current downtrend, I have to look for SIA Engg to drift slowly down towards $3.60.

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.