Tag Archives: S63.SI

Blue-chips in trouble

Evening all,

I have some words on the local market for today. After a fall starting in September, the STI has regained lost ground, and closed at 3350 on Friday. Two periods of rejection at this region in recent history mean that the STI is testing resistance now. When I look specifically at charts of the component stocks, I see more bearish-looking charts than bullish ones; and this was what I thought a few months back too – which makes me wonder how the STI managed to follow international indices higher. I want to share a few counters that have confirmed their mid-term sluggishness.

This is SIA Engineering – S59.SI. In my last post on this counter https://technicalanalysistalk.wordpress.com/2014/04/10/sia-engg-cruising-at-all-time-high/ – I mentioned my disappointment at SIA Engg failing at an all-time high, and prompted the chance of a downtrend emerging from a consolidation. SIA Engg traded in quite a volatile fashion from August to November before a decisive break down from the range (in black) in the middle of November. The sell-off put SIA Engg 10% below levels seen a few months back. Significantly, SIA Engg is now in a clear downtrend.

sia engg

Next, SembCorp Marine – S51.SI. In my last post on SembMar https://technicalanalysistalk.wordpress.com/2014/02/18/sembmarine-looking-bearish/ – I identified a huge descending triangle. True to theory, SembMar continued downwards. Based on the height of the pattern, SembMar is reaching its target. Incidentally, the downward target from the triangle is where a major low is: $3.10 region.

sem

Finally, ST Engg – S63.SI.

After coming out of a triangle in November of last year, ST Engg went range-bound for almost a year. In August of this year, ST Engg started sliding even lower. A sudden spike sent ST Engg to the 200-day MA but rejection kept the general downtrend intact. The recent sell-off is with heavy volume. The picture looks quite similar to SembMar’s. I see downtrends confirmed in these and other counters.

st

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

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Local bourse looks dull

While I was on hiatus in the latter months of last year, I still monitored the markets. The general story went like this: US markets soar, European markets take cue, and Asian markets disappoint (“ex-Japan” – as they like to say).

spsti

Singapore counters did not give much reason for cheer. I remember vaguely seeing a potential inverted head and shoulders that should have been on the radar of some chartists. It is not the best-looking of its kind but the general idea is there.

failedihs

The then unconfirmed pattern resulted in a downward breakout. It can be seen as a successful downward breakout actually. But I will not go into it anymore.

For an index like the Straits Times Index – STI, one way of analysing it is to look into the constituent components. After a brief look at all of the charts, my simple view of the local bourse is that many counters are either range-bound or trending lower. Property counters were downright bearish quite a while ago, and the picture does not look very different now; the telcos look like they have finally reached a fair level after years of the market pricing them higher; and, the Agris look either flat or in downtrends. The only sector that may surprise is banking. (Even then, my analysis in future may point in the opposite direction).

In the charts below, you will see a similar story: major support breached, and a clear case of what seems like more than the start of a downtrend.

e5h c31 s63 c07

While western markets resume their upward trajectory, I think the large-cap local stocks will continue to disappoint. Some are even presenting downtrend trading opportunities. However, I do see some of the second-, third-tier counters that look promising. As the weeks and months go by, I will upload some of those charts.

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.

ST Engg in an upward parallel channel

Evening all, this is the second post of the day.

I have found an upward parallel channel in ST Engg, S63.SI. Straightaway, this is a bullish pattern on the chart. On the weekly chart, the 50-week MA is acting as support for ST Engg as well.

On the daily chart, the 200-day MA is just inside the channel. All I can get from the chart is that ST Engg is close to a region of support. There is still room for downside, but I see ST Engg as looking quite okay from the chart. As long as price does not break below key support levels, I do not se why ST Engg cannot test its 2007 highs some time this year.

All analyses, recommendations, discussions and other information herein are published for general information. Readers should not rely solely on the information published on this blog and should seek independent financial advice prior to making any investment decision. The publisher accepts no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from any use of the information published herein.